I predict that location based functions will explode in 2011. But, I think that will happen due to the largest and newest site to jump on the location-based bandwagon. Facebook is the 500 million fan gorilla of the bunch. They debuted Facebook Places this year.
Facebook Places has some growing pains to overcome. It’s nowhere near what it could be at this time.
But I predict by the end of 2011, they will become the dominant player in the location based realm destroying Gowalla and Foursquare. According to a Business Insider article, 30 million people have already tried Facebook places. Currently, very few are active users. Foursquare on the other hand has approximately 4 million users which are considerably more active. Gowalla sufficiently less.
With Facebook’s track record for change and the recent debut of Facebook deals, they will continue to innovate and win more people over. In a recent conversation with Matt LaCasse during #journchat, he summed this up beautifully.
“Facebook is making itself absolutely unique so no one CAN compete with it.” #Capitalism (via @mattlacasse)
It’s all in the numbers. Facebook already has a massive 500 million person audience in front of them and the seed planted for a “Foursquare killer” idea. All they need to do is fine tune it. That’s easier said than done. But, Facebook will continue to recruit the top talent and will find a way to turn their idea into something much bigger. They just need to come up with a compelling reason/call to action why Facebook members should check in places.
No matter how much Foursquare and Gowalla innovate and come up with game changing ideas, they will still end up losing out because they still have to build a larger audience. Foursquare is already outnumbered seven to one. The odds aren’t in their favor.
What do you think about location based apps? Do you think Foursquare and Gowalla will eventually fizzle out? Or, will they find a way to continue to compete with Facebook? Please share your comments below.
